How are the markets looking?
Chat Transcript
rnp_123: The SCI fall started in October 2007 and the Nifty?s in Jan 2008. The SCI is now at around 1700 ? 1800. It has probably bottomed and is very flat, not reacting much to the positive and neg news. Will Nifty go to 1700 and prove Mr.Shankar Sharma right.
Ramesh Damani: good chance that the market will test its panic bottom in the next 4 monthsnehamathur: All hot industries will get crowded and no one will make money at the end due to competition. Real estate can become like that? So Godrej Industries will not make money in the end.
Ramesh Damani: that is always possible..but business does not function if you do not make profit..so in the end capitalism corrects itself
nehamathur: If there is one definite way to make money in markets, then what is it?Ramesh Damani: be patient and have conviction..invest
wiselysushmbh: Dear SIR, you had said earlier that a natural bottom has to be formed and it can be recognized. Do you still stick to this point. If yes, then do you see the bottom far away from SENSEX 8000 OR CLOSEBY TO IT. You do recognize as your EXPERIENCE IS GREAT. WE are all great fans of yours. Do guide us well. Thanks.
Ramesh Damani: some of the heavy weights look like they may have a further way to go ..so we could test the bottom
nehamathur: Peter Lynch: Never buy a company which you cannot explain with a crayon. Can you explain what the logic of Godrej industries is? Can you explain with estimated figures how it supports the logic?
Ramesh Damani: a great collection of business's at a great valuation..which will be explored over timesudhakajaria: DEAR sir, you did say that markets will improve when the economy gets deleveraged. What we would like to know is?.have companies like Hindalco, Unitech, DLF, BEEN DELEVERAGED AFTER THIS CAPITULATION. Could you tell us if a bottom is formed in them or are they still on the correction process. Do share. Thanks.
Ramesh Damani: no they still have debt on their b/s
sps195195: sir whats your view on market after today closing all stock down more and more from this level because all tecnical chart show big crash what your view.also view on nucleus and vip both your value stocks.what wrong in this
Ramesh Damani: in case you have not noticed all stocks have collapsed..the adv decline line since sept has been horrible.
sudhakajaria: Dear Sir, you say that the upper limit is capped. Is not the lower limit capped NOW?? Or do still see more panic in markets at this stage? Has the market not formed a TRADING BAND?? If yes, then do share with us, what your insight has seen in these days. Thanks
Ramesh Damani: in a bear market lower limits are not capped
sviju: Hello Ramesh - Tanla Solutions, a mobile VAS sunrise sector company with growth of about 70% yoy is going at 4 PE and mcap of 300 crores while it has around 100 crores in cash and equivalents... Is there something else that we should be knowing?
Ramesh Damani: quality of mgmt
nehamathur: TCI to become billion dollar company, it has to be a 10-12 bagger from here. Do you still hold to your opinion?
Ramesh Damani: yes but the road to riches is painful..we need gdp growth of 6% plus for that to happen
sonali9876: do u feel low will b tested first or we cud go near 12000 levels first???
Ramesh Damani: probably the lows
indraneelb: Sir, do you feel that being essentially a one product company is hampering the growth of Nucleus ?
Ramesh Damani: not really...they just need some new orders at this size it is not a problem
sekurikrishna: sir-WHATS UR TAKE ON L
Ramesh Damani: not yet attractive according to me
sonali9876: CIRCUIT CITY decalred bankruptcy in USA ystrday,,,wat were main reasons 4 collapse?
Ramesh Damani: leverage and slowing down of consumer spending
vickky_27: sir is your conviction in godrej ind as much as that in mcdowell or even more
Ramesh Damani: it is but clearly with the slow down we will have to wait..it is tough going
berryr: Having seen one of the worst carnages in recent times, which was predicted by Chandrakant Sampatji in his articles on Capitalideasonline. Hope you could consider interviewing hin on cnbc so that we get insight into his views on how to tackle this crisis and invest in these times.
Ramesh Damani: thanks for the suggestion
vickky_27: sir what to do with nucleus. i invested it in at rs.200/- ex bonus. is there chance that i can recover my investment in next 2-3 years or the company will go in hibernation
Ramesh Damani: no one can predict it..but the co will bounce back if it gets new orders..which should happen from japan..can;t predict the time frame
pune_swengineer: Sir, we are seeing a huge destruction in wealth. we know that gold is a store of weatlh. should it not go down according to this logic since there is less of wealth to store?
Ramesh Damani: your logic is convoluted
srks: Sir does Godrej Industries have some stake in Geometric?
Ramesh Damani: no
wavestudent: Sir, in case of a panic scenario if L
Ramesh Damani: sorry can not predict the enviroment at that times
viju: Hello Ramesh - Does that answer mean quality of mgmt is somewhat suspect in case of Tanla? Or is it a general reference to the parameters that I should consider?
Ramesh Damani: must study and understand mgmt
radha.srf: Dear Sir, we liked the words?..?EDUCATED GUESSES?. Very well said. You have said that the upside is capped between 11500-12500. We would be highly grateful if you could share your educated guesses on current levels?.how do you see the market now? Which large cap sector is under pressure even at current levels. Kindly do share with us. Metal like tisco, Financial like Reliance Capital, Banks like SBI and Axis. Which do you see under pressure, now? Thanks.
Ramesh Damani: telecom and financials look to be under pressure...
asmiti: will u buy a company whose market cap is equal to three years cash flow. If yes do you think we should buy Sesa Goa
Ramesh Damani: cash flow will change do not assume historical cash flows will continue
kums: minimum time 2 years before we could see good old level 21,000 or we should forget that level?!
Ramesh Damani: it will take longer then 2 years
pchilamkuri: I think without paying the price, America will not soft land. In that case, everybody has to suffer. Directly or indirectly we are linked to US Markets. In that case, we have to see lower lows. Do you agree
Ramesh Damani: it clearly could happen
holster13: Your follower from Boston: We all know there is doom but what is this new logic of the mkts not favoring Gold? Conventional and historic thought process Gold should be touching highs during this period. Your views please.
Ramesh Damani: it will ..when we see inflation coming back or with another collapse in the dollar both of which seem inevitable
sonali9876: MIDCAPS,,,B GRP STOCKS,,,not recovering with index in similar degree!!!,bt falling yet harder?
Ramesh Damani: that is typcialsachu_659: hi Ramesh, is it a gud time to invest in shipping industry since the freight rates are low but crude is laso at its low
Ramesh Damani: some how i doubt it is a godo time to be in shippingindraneelb: Sir, as I review, most of your recommendations in the last bull market went up substantially from the reco prices - Nucleus,UB, Gail, Gati, Balmer, VIP, TCI, Int. Travel, Godrej, Sundaram, HOCL, TV today,Aegis, SBI , Hitachi, and numerous others .. yet we failed to make justice to your astute recommendations by not booking profit in the absence of timely sell calls.
Ramesh Damani: i have issued general sell calls last year...on more than a few occasions..asking investors to riase cash
sree420: sir i have gone thru redherring proepects of godrej properties the only plus point is they r having own land banks but comapring the financials of godrej with other like parsvnath and purvankara godrej properties should will be valued around 2000 mcap so why u r so bullish on godrej ind any rationale plz reply
Ramesh Damani: they have 120 million sq feet under dev over the next 7 years in addition to vikhroli...land bank is at zero cost..cash flows could be enormous as long as economy does not go into depression
pune_swengineer: put simply.. there is much less money in the world to buy gold now. so gold prices should also head down.this was the meaning of my logic.
Ramesh Damani: it is a question of asset allocation..if you do not believe in paper you will move to hard assets (gold)
kanupriyaa: Dear Sir, only answer THIS ONE QUESTION OF MOINE. DO YOU SEE THE MARKET TESTING THE BOTTOM FIRST....OR DO YOU SEE RALLIES IN BETWEEN and a long time to see bottom again. Do share your educated guesses with us, as we are really really trust your insight. Thanks.
Ramesh Damani: no clear answer...but in a bear market rallies are fast, swift and do not last
drshakthi72: Sir, there is an argument that the sensex has historically not gone below 65% from its top. you think it can be broken?
Ramesh Damani: all records are broken
mumabi_123: Abt. TATA ELXSI ? The company has shown good results this year and gives yield of abt 7% at the cmp. It has done some really good work with the latest YRF fully animated film ? ?Raghu Romeo?. However, the B/s shows increasing nos. of debtors and is low on cash. Does it merit an investment at CMP. Ur views pls.Thnx.
Ramesh Damani: they pay a huge div each year hence the low cash
indraneelb: Sir, it was good in a way that Nucleus did not make much headway in US and European markets..otherwise they would have been badly hit by the meltdown in the financial sector in those areas. But going forward do you feel that Nucleus should and will make foray in the US and European markets, as opportunity can be large in those places given the inevitable impending large scale need for quality lending software products ?
Ramesh Damani: mgmt has been slow..i think they will concentrate on Japan, Middle East and africa
kanupriyaa: Dear Sir, as you had said that the technical rally will fizzle out before 11500-12500 and that is exactly what happened. You were not bullish and in this bear market there are only rallies. Now what Sir/?? Any indication your insight could share with us at current levels. Kindly do. Every week we wait eagerly for your views. Thanks
Ramesh Damani: market may not hit bottom immediately but it will test it eventually
nbaderia: I have been following your chats offline most of the time. I can see there is no talk about ITC Agro Tech once your Favorite? I have been holding it for 2 years and couldn`t sell it on peak. Any views on it.
Ramesh Damani: nothing new..
avi_bhat: Should the Indian govt also announce spending program like CHina? This will not only help the economy but also our badly needed infrasturcture
Ramesh Damani: we run budget deficits so it is not so easy as china to spend 500 billion dollarsholster13: Your follower from Boston: I guess you favor FMCG as the next sector which will be a leader after this slow growth period - do you have any particular company in mind as of now - fit for accumalation
Ramesh Damani: not really just the usual culprits..though in US I would avoid anything to do with US Consumer..btw would look at gaming stocks in AMerica..they seem very cheap..MGM in
particular
singaraju: Alternative inv avenues.. FDs, bonds, money mkt funds- all will struggle to keep with inflation. Realty. Commodities and equities are down and down. Gold may be just can keep up, since the purchasing power of it remains remarkably constant over 4 centuries. If one wants inflation beating (and may be little more..), what are the asset classes would you prefer?
Ramesh Damani: cash, gold and oil may be able to hold value..if inflation rises get out of cash
pune_swengineer: Godrej Indi: sir in there RHP they have not mentioned all their land banks.. specifically those owned by godrej industries.
Ramesh Damani: tthey have no land bank and hence not leveraged..they will develop properties for others in JV with land costed at zero or develop group co properties,
vickky_27: sir if we buy godrej at 75 it goes to 125 should we book profit in this environment or invest and sit tight ignoring all the fluctuations . i mean should we invest or trade
Ramesh Damani: that depends on your outlook..
indraneelb: When to sell ? At a share price of Rs.1200, we still felt Nucleus had barely scratched the surface in marketing of its products in the world market. Similarly we thought TCI and VIP , both around Rs. 170 , had miles to go because the opportunity was enormous for them . Ditto International Travel House, TV today, Gail etc. None of them appeared to be steeply priced at reasonable PE levels and great growth prospects,which you too felt.Yet all of them collapsed.So what`s the right selling strategy?
Ramesh Damani: when you feel the bull market is getting over i guess you sell and book profits..
shamgangurde: vip- isn`t the excellent quality of its products its problem in expandind business? I am travelling far more than earlier but using the same VIP bags for last 15 years.
Ramesh Damani: travel market is growingkanupriyaa: Dear Sir, last week you said that you given up on PNB GILTS. Does that mean you have sold off. We have a big part of our holding in it. Can we wait for long term or book losses. Honestly, youare our only guide whom we trust. So, when we make profits through you, we are ready to bear losses as well. KAINDLY GUIDE US WELL. tHANKS.
Ramesh Damani: mgmt cannot make up its mind..they should merge it or sell it..they just do not act..i still have around half my holdings
ree420: sir enam people r not circumspect on mkts they r saying once in a life time opportunity u r comments plz
Ramesh Damani: markets work on difference of opinions
10in3: Hello Ramesh, in case of long depression what is the way out for making money from market, trading or short term investing?
Ramesh Damani: staying in cash..and investing in stocks that have inelastic demand (pharma) and some pricing power
replytarun: Will we make new bottom in span of 2-3 months and will that be somewhat or significant lower than present one. What do you see sir? will it remain rangebound 8000 to
Ramesh Damani: we are going to probably test the bottom may be by jan/feb
holster13: Your follower from Boston: Merdith Whitney - the lady who predicted the crunch - says the bottom is still not found! Also she says the credit card companies are next - would it apply to Indian mkt as well?
Ramesh Damani: yes
pune_swengineer: in depression dow lost 90%... do u see something similar happening???Ramesh Damani: no not at this time
vjain1234: Dear Ramesh, I want to buy property in delhi, but its still too expensive, no builders giving discount, is it due to presence of cash economy?
Ramesh Damani: property shoul start slipping in the next few days
singaraju: Ramesh Damani: travel market is growing.. yes sir, but VIP is not.. they are not showing any signs of growth, after all these restructuring. Do you still hopeful that they will deliver, and the co will work out? Pls clarify sir.
Ramesh Damani: they earned rs 10..price is 45....
sudz_123: Dear Sir, as you said that financials and telecom are under pressure. As they have coprrected today, do you still see more room for downside in stocks like bharti, rel. com, sbi , rel.cap, and axis bank. Do share. Thanks
Ramesh Damani: no specific names but i am bearish on those sectors since valuations are still high
Thesaint: I read in eFe that technology sector has become more pervasive and slowdown this time would not be so bad and prolonged.Is Infosys a reasonable buy at current levels?
Ramesh Damani: software is India's oil..in aggregate ind will do well though co margins may decline
vkn67: with huge debt, and messed up economy US is any way in deep trouble. Any amount of Federal action will only lead to delaying the inevitable - do you see this as a failure of Capitalism (as we had seen the history of Communism`s failure with the USSR !!)
Ramesh Damani: you could make a case..the US is hurtling towards bankruptcy
singaraju: VIP..cheap?.. yes. But what about growth, on which we made our bet?
Ramesh Damani: they cannto grow faster then gdp....remember the entire economy has ground to a halt
dbengali: Hello Sir, You have been trading since long and expert, howz METASTOCK charting software which gives intra-day BUY and SELL signals for any stocks. I have seen my friends who are not stock market experts making money easily following buy and sell indicators. They do nothing but follow that software. They are not aware of any charts. I am sure you must have got chance to see that software. Your views and expert advice would help me. Is is so easy trading using this software?
Ramesh Damani: i have...do not follow any mechanical trading systems..they cannot work or every one would use it....judgement of the self is imp
Ramesh Damani: thanks all for joining..market remains bearish so be careful..thanks
No comments:
Post a Comment